For much of the postwar period most central banks were not independent, though whether independence has been the driving force behind prolonged disinflation is another matter, as is the question of whether central banks will remain independent in future. 战后很长时期里,多数央行不是独立的&尽管央行独立地位是不是持续通胀减缓的推动因素是另一个问题,而央行未来能不能保持独立也是一个问题。
Crucially, disinflation may be a prelude to demand-led inflation. 至关重要的是,通胀放缓可能是需求拉动型通胀的前奏。
In fact, some point to the Bank of Japan's easing efforts, which helped send the yen down 18% against the dollar and 21% against the euro in 2013, as fueling disinflation elsewhere, particularly in Europe. 事实上,一些人指出日本央行的宽松举措加剧了其他地区(尤其是欧洲)的通胀率下降局面。日本的宽松政策推动日圆兑美元和欧元在2013年分别下跌了18%和21%。
Weak domestic demand has aggravated excess capacity issues in many sectors, and together with a sharper decline in commodity and oil prices, have led to rapid disinflation, and for the industrial sector, deeper deflation. 低迷的国内需求加剧了许多领域的产能过剩的问题,加上大宗商品和石油价格的加速下滑,共同引发了通胀率的迅速下降,而对于工业领域来说,则是引发了更严重的通缩。
The bigger reason for disinflation is the low oil price. 通胀放缓的更大原因在于低油价。
In a speech at Jackson Hole in August he made an unusually definitive statement for a central banker. The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. 8月份在杰克逊霍尔(JacksonHole)的演讲中,他以央行行长罕有的明确态度说了这样一句话:现阶段的问题,不是我们是否拥有帮助维系经济活动、防范通胀减缓的手段。
This gave us the twin decades of disinflation. 这带给我们20年的反通货膨胀。
If the eurozone is willing to live with close to stagnant overall demand, it will become an arena for beggar-my-neighbour competitive disinflation, with growing reliance on world markets as a vent for surplus. 如果欧元区愿意容忍接近停滞的整体需求,它将变成一个以邻为壑的竞争性反通胀的地区,逐渐依赖全球市场作为盈余的出口。
At the same time, disinflation makes it cheaper to borrow in both real and nominal terms. 与此同时,无论是以实际还是名义价值衡量,反通货膨胀都令借贷成本更低廉。
"The latest data confirm that the free fall in upstream prices is bringing rapid disinflation at the consumer level," said Qing Wang, economist at Morgan Stanley. “最新数据证实,上游价格水平的大幅下降,正在消费者物价层面产生快速的反通胀效应,”摩根士丹利(morganstanley)经济学家王庆(qingwang)表示。
A common mistake is to assume that falling export prices mean that China is exporting disinflation, whereas rising export prices imply it is exporting inflation. 一个最常见的误解就是认为出口商品价格下降意味着中国在输出通缩,反之,出口商品价格上升暗示中国在输出通胀。
Because the world has changed: Asian economies have matured, driving their own growth and no longer boast the excess capacity that once led them to export disinflation in the form of cheap clothes and affordable electronics. 世界已经改变:亚洲经济体已经成熟,专注于推动自身的增长,也不再拥有过去促使他们以出口廉价服装和电子产品形式输出通胀减缓的过剩产能。
Sometimes, these two important financial markets move up together, especially in an environment of general disinflation, when interest rates tend to decline. 有时候,这两个重要的金融市场一起移动,特别是在一般通货膨胀,当利率趋于下降的环境。
Ultimately, this process turns disinflation into deflation and probably will do so in the US by late 2010. 最终,这一过程将使通胀减速演变成通缩,美国可能会在2010年底出现这种局面。
The major macro risk in China is quickly shifting from inflation to disinflation, calling for more aggressive easing in policy going into next year, he said. 他表示:中国主要的宏观风险在于从通胀快速转为通缩,需要在进入明年之际实施更激进的宽松政策。
Of course, as Japan demonstrated, if asset price deflation is sufficiently sustained and venomous, the negative wealth effect could weaken consumer spending to the point where consumer price disinflation or even deflation becomes a plausible possibility. 当然,正如日本所证明的一样,如果资产价格下跌持续的时间足够长,足够有害,那么负面的财富效应可能会削弱消费者开支,达到看似可能引起消费者价格回落甚或是通缩的水平。
What is very worrying is that central banks have largely exhausted their ammunition at a time when the risk of a broad global recession characterised by disinflation is growing. 非常令人担心的一点是,在以通货膨胀减缓为特征的大范围全球经济衰退风险加剧之时,各央行在很大程度上已耗尽了弹药。
Disinflation was a great good, allowing the world economy to grow faster, more productively and more continuously, without much in the way of cyclical ups and downs. 这是个好东西,让世界经济得以更快、更有成效、更连续不断地增长,而不会发生太多周期性盛衰这样的情况。
The traditional approach to disinflation assumes that people do not change the way they form expectations when monetary policy changes, so that the relation between inflation and unemployment is unaffected by the change in policy. 通货紧缩的通用方法是假设当货币政策变动时,人们不会改变他们形成预期的方式,所以通货膨胀与失业之间的关系没有受到政策变动的影响。
Two sources of confusion are apparent. First, some commentators are conflating asset price deflation with consumer price disinflation. Second, the bleaker and more deflationary forecasts seem to ignore trends in the major developing economies. 引起混淆的两个来源显而易见:首先,一些评论员把资产价格下跌与消费者价格下跌混为一谈;其次,更黯淡和更强的通缩预期似乎忽略了主要发展中经济体的趋势。
Fixed Exchange Rate System: A costly disinflation measure 固定汇率制:并非低成本的反通货膨胀措施
It is very important how to extricate the economy from disinflation and to adjust financial and monetary policies appropriately. 如何将经济拉出通货紧缩的阴影,适时地调整财政、货币政策是至关重要的。